Congress could shut down the government over Obamacare tax credits. Who gets them? Sarah D. Wire, USA TODAYSeptember 25, 2025 at 6:04 AM 0 Victoria Sylvester and her husband have discussed divorcing ‒ just on paper ‒ to protect their assets if her healthcare costs tip her into bankruptcy.
- - Congress could shut down the government over Obamacare tax credits. Who gets them?
Sarah D. Wire, USA TODAYSeptember 25, 2025 at 6:04 AM
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Victoria Sylvester and her husband have discussed divorcing ‒ just on paper ‒ to protect their assets if her healthcare costs tip her into bankruptcy.
Their health insurance premium is expected to jump from $0 to $1,500 a month when the premium tax credits they've relied on end later this year.
More than 24 million Americans receive subsidies to reduce out-of-pocket costs for health insurance obtained through the Health Insurance Marketplace, created by the 2010 law known as Obamacare. Impending changes to subsidy amounts and limits to who can get them lie at the root of Congress' fight over funding the government, a battle expected to come to a head Sept. 30 when current funding authority runs out. Without a bipartisan deal, the government will shut down.
Jimmy Kimmel Live!' will return Tuesday evening with a slew of new guests.Glen Powell waves as he walks to attend "Jimmy Kimmel Live!," the day after Disney announced that the show would return to its ABC network lineup on Sept. 23, 2025.
" style=padding-bottom:56%>After an abrupt suspension, ABC confirmed "Jimmy Kimmel Live!' will return Tuesday evening with a slew of new guests.Glen Powell waves as he walks to attend "Jimmy Kimmel Live!," the day after Disney announced that the show would return to its ABC network lineup on Sept. 23, 2025.
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After an abrupt suspension, ABC confirmed "Jimmy Kimmel Live!' will return Tuesday evening with a slew of new guests.Glen Powell waves as he walks to attend "Jimmy Kimmel Live!," the day after Disney announced that the show would return to its ABC network lineup on Sept. 23, 2025.
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" src=https://ift.tt/Sukw5iA class=caas-img>Jimmy Kimmel interviews actor Glen Powell on his first night back on "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" on Sept. 23, 2025.
" data-src=https://ift.tt/OGaTiUk class=caas-img data-headline="Photos from Jimmy Kimmel's first show back" data-caption="
Jimmy Kimmel interviews actor Glen Powell on his first night back on "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" on Sept. 23, 2025.
">Jimmy Kimmel interviews actor Glen Powell on his first night back on "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" on Sept. 23, 2025.
" src=https://ift.tt/OGaTiUk class=caas-img>Glen Powell leaves after "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" show was recorded for broadcast.
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Glen Powell leaves after "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" show was recorded for broadcast.
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" src=https://ift.tt/oh7xLzO class=caas-img>Glen Powell leaves after "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" show was recorded for broadcast.
" data-src=https://ift.tt/tmNiMnD class=caas-img data-headline="Photos from Jimmy Kimmel's first show back" data-caption="
Glen Powell leaves after "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" show was recorded for broadcast.
">Glen Powell leaves after "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" show was recorded for broadcast.
" src=https://ift.tt/tmNiMnD class=caas-img>"This show is not important," Kimmel said at one point. "What is important is that we get to live in a country that allows us to have a show like this."
" style=padding-bottom:56%>The Emmy-winning comedian teared up while recounting the support he received from friends and supporters, and echoed sentiments about the importance of free speech.
"This show is not important," Kimmel said at one point. "What is important is that we get to live in a country that allows us to have a show like this."
" data-src=https://ift.tt/u5CeWTX class=caas-img data-headline="Photos from Jimmy Kimmel's first show back" data-caption="
The Emmy-winning comedian teared up while recounting the support he received from friends and supporters, and echoed sentiments about the importance of free speech.
"This show is not important," Kimmel said at one point. "What is important is that we get to live in a country that allows us to have a show like this."
">The Emmy-winning comedian teared up while recounting the support he received from friends and supporters, and echoed sentiments about the importance of free speech.
"This show is not important," Kimmel said at one point. "What is important is that we get to live in a country that allows us to have a show like this."
" src=https://ift.tt/u5CeWTX class=caas-img>Sarah Mclachlan performs on "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" on Sept. 23, 2025.
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Sarah Mclachlan performs on "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" on Sept. 23, 2025.
">Sarah Mclachlan performs on "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" on Sept. 23, 2025.
" src=https://ift.tt/wVcZ4MI class=caas-img>Jimmy Kimmel
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Jimmy Kimmel
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" src=https://ift.tt/4MetuxN class=caas-img>Jimmy Kimmel hugs Guillermo Rodriguez during his first show back.
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Jimmy Kimmel hugs Guillermo Rodriguez during his first show back.
">Jimmy Kimmel hugs Guillermo Rodriguez during his first show back.
" src=https://ift.tt/cr5VdZY class=caas-img>Jimmy Kimmel walks back stage.
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Jimmy Kimmel walks back stage.
">Jimmy Kimmel walks back stage.
" src=https://ift.tt/Gl4wXs6 class=caas-img>Gregg Donavan holds a sign that reads "Welcome back Jimmy" outside the theatre where "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" was recorded for broadcast.
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Gregg Donavan holds a sign that reads "Welcome back Jimmy" outside the theatre where "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" was recorded for broadcast.
">Gregg Donavan holds a sign that reads "Welcome back Jimmy" outside the theatre where "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" was recorded for broadcast.
" src=https://ift.tt/ASybkcO class=caas-img>People hold signs while gathered at a fence, as Glen Powell (not pictured) walks to attend "Jimmy Kimmel Live!"
" data-src=https://ift.tt/cxp3TZ0 class=caas-img data-headline="Photos from Jimmy Kimmel's first show back" data-caption="
People hold signs while gathered at a fence, as Glen Powell (not pictured) walks to attend "Jimmy Kimmel Live!"
">People hold signs while gathered at a fence, as Glen Powell (not pictured) walks to attend "Jimmy Kimmel Live!"
" src=https://ift.tt/cxp3TZ0 class=caas-img>People gather outside the El Capitan Entertainment Centre in Hollywood where the "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" show will be recorded on the first night of the show's return to the ABC lineup on Sept. 23, 2025 in Los Angeles.
" data-src=https://ift.tt/NH64Pab class=caas-img data-headline="Photos from Jimmy Kimmel's first show back" data-caption="
People gather outside the El Capitan Entertainment Centre in Hollywood where the "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" show will be recorded on the first night of the show's return to the ABC lineup on Sept. 23, 2025 in Los Angeles.
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" src=https://ift.tt/NH64Pab class=caas-img>Audience members of "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" stand in line to enter the theatre where the show was recorded for broadcast.
" data-src=https://ift.tt/WLzDhSw class=caas-img data-headline="Photos from Jimmy Kimmel's first show back" data-caption="
Audience members of "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" stand in line to enter the theatre where the show was recorded for broadcast.
">Audience members of "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" stand in line to enter the theatre where the show was recorded for broadcast.
" src=https://ift.tt/WLzDhSw class=caas-img>A security guard stands outside the theatre where "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" was recorded for broadcast.
" data-src=https://ift.tt/9YRUfN7 class=caas-img data-headline="Photos from Jimmy Kimmel's first show back" data-caption="
A security guard stands outside the theatre where "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" was recorded for broadcast.
">A security guard stands outside the theatre where "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" was recorded for broadcast.
" src=https://ift.tt/9YRUfN7 class=caas-img>Guillermo Rodriguez, a comedian working on Jimmy Kimmel's show, walks at a parking lot, the day after Disney announced that "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" would return to its ABC network lineup.
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Guillermo Rodriguez, a comedian working on Jimmy Kimmel's show, walks at a parking lot, the day after Disney announced that "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" would return to its ABC network lineup.
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" src=https://ift.tt/U9tnC0M class=caas-img>A protester holds a sign reading "liberty" outside the "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" show in Hollywood, California on Sept. 23, 2025.
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A protester holds a sign reading "liberty" outside the "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" show in Hollywood, California on Sept. 23, 2025.
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Demonstrators display signs as they protest, outside the theatre where the "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" was recorded for broadcast.
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1 / 18Photos from Jimmy Kimmel's first show back
After an abrupt suspension, ABC confirmed "Jimmy Kimmel Live!' will return Tuesday evening with a slew of new guests.Glen Powell waves as he walks to attend "Jimmy Kimmel Live!," the day after Disney announced that the show would return to its ABC network lineup on Sept. 23, 2025.
For Sylvester, 55, of Traverse City, Michigan, having health insurance isn't optional.
In 2022, Sylvester was diagnosed with stage 3 ovarian cancer, and while it is in remission now, it has a high rate of recurrence. She needs frequent checkups and testing to catch it quickly if it comes back. And she still receives treatment for some side effects from chemotherapy.
"I don't feel like anybody should be put in the position of choosing whether you can keep yourself alive or not because of stupid finances and insurance," she said.
She is already examining their budget to try to find the extra money. She and her husband are both self employed.
Victoria Sylvester could pay as much as $1,500 a month for insurance in the enhanced subsidies for her Obamacare insurance plan expire.
"I'm extremely stressed," she said. "I'm breaking it down by week, OK, where can we come up with $X each week. I'm not sure where that would come from."
With the costs looming, she expects to work longer hours, cut down on groceries and reduce how often they visit grandchildren and children.
"We don't spend super frivolously, anyhow, so it is hard to figure out how to come up with $1,200 to $1,500 a month extra," she said. "Forget about eating out; ever."
The give and take of DC politics
Sensing a moment of potential leverage, Democrats want to use the funding bill to reverse Medicaid cuts and to extend Obamacare subsidies set to lapse at the end of the year. The Medicaid cuts were included in the GOP tax and spending bill signed into law in July.
Republican leaders initially appeared willing to discuss extending the subsidies to win Democrats' support for a Senate vote to keep open the federal government, while acknowledging that any concession could lose them Republican votes in the House. Budget bills need 60 votes to pass the Senate, so getting Democrats on board is key.
Some vulnerable and centrist Republicans also want to extend the enhanced premium subsidies, while other GOP members criticize the enhanced credits as a COVID-era benefit that should end.
More: An Obamacare fight may shut down the government. It's happened before
On Sept. 16, Republican House leaders put forward a short-term funding measure to keep federal agencies open through Nov. 21. That bill didn't include Democrats' demands to extend the subsidies or undo the Medicaid cuts.
Democrats accused Republicans of walking away from bipartisan negotiations. Republicans said addressing major health care changes shouldn't be part of a "clean" spending bill that continues funding government at the current levels. They have opened the door to addressing it before the credits expire Dec. 31, but have not committed.
U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) speaks during a press conference at the U.S. Capitol Building on Sept. 24, 2025, in Washington, D.C. Jeffries spoke to reporters about the recent shooting in Dallas, Texas and the negotiations between Congress and the White House to avoid a government shutdown.
The House narrowly passed the GOP funding bill largely on party lines by a vote of 217 to 212 on Sept. 19. However, senators voted against the GOP-backed bill by a vote of 48-44 that same day.
Senate Republicans are due back to Washington Sept. 29 ‒ the day before the current spending authority expires ‒ and Senate leaders are expected to bring the GOP bill up again in hopes Democrats will change their minds in the face of a shutdown.
Trump cancelled a planned meeting with Democratic leaders, calling their demands "unserious and ridiculous."
House Republicans are not expected to return until after the shutdown deadline, giving Senate Democrats the choice of relying on GOP promises to extend the credits or letting funding authority end.
During and after the COVID-19 pandemic, Congress approved the enhanced premium tax credits in the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) and extended under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). They are set to expire at the end of 2025.
The enhanced tax credits increased subsidies that eligible people received, and expanded eligibility to include those making more than four-times the federal poverty level. In 2025, that figure is $62,600 for an individual or $124,800 for a family of four.
House Speaker Mike Johnson says Democrats may force a government shutdown as the deadline looms on October 1.
The enhanced credits have more than doubled the number of people purchasing from the marketplace since 2020, with the majority in states that voted for President Donald Trump in 2024, like Florida, Georgia and Texas, according to KFF.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that 4.2 million more people will be uninsured in 2034 if the enhanced credits end. Expanding the premium tax credits would cost nearly $350 billion over the next decade, according to a Congressional Budget Office review.
Doubled monthly payments
The premium tax credits cut Lester Johnson's monthly payments in half.
Johnson, 52, left corporate America 16 years ago to open a soul food restaurant in Jackson Ward, a historic Black neighborhood in Richmond, Virginia, expanding his mother's catering business into a physical location. With the restaurant's small profit margin, he can't afford to provide insurance for his more than 30 employees.
He's not holding his breath that Congress will restore the credits before open enrollment begins in October.
Restaurant owner Lester Johnson expects his costs to double when the Obamacare enhanced tax subsidies end
He expects the monthly costs for his own family's insurance to double and he is still working out where the extra $700 a month will come from. He's considered ending extra-curricular activities for his 8-year-old daughter.
"As an entrepreneur, you worry about so many things," he said. Losing the tax credit is an "unnecessary worry for me and my family."
Who would be affected by the change in tax credits?
About 92% of the 24.3 million Americans who use the marketplace receive a subsidy of some amount, according to KFF. If Congress doesn't act and the credits expire at the end of 2025, out-of-pocket premiums would rise by more than 75% on average.
Low-income and older users, as well those who live in states that have not expanded Medicaid, are expected to see the most significant cost increases.
Small business owners, self-employed people and people who are employed by a small business make up 48% of people using the marketplace, according to KFF.
"If this market becomes really expensive and not very affordable for people, is that going to reduce the formation of new businesses and are there going to be some sort of spillover effects on local economies if people are not able to start new things?" asked Katherine Hempstead, senior policy officer at Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, a nonprofit that focuses on health.
Early retirees aged 50 to 64 who don't yet qualify for Medicaid make up the fastest-growing group of marketplace users, Hempstead said.
Farmers also commonly use the marketplace, she said, as do very low-income people who live in states that did not chose to expand Medicaid access as offered under Obamacare.
Lelaine Bigelow, Executive Director of the Georgetown Center on Poverty and Inequality, said most people who purchase through the marketplace will see their premiums double, if not more. She pointed to a KFF calculator that people can use to estimate how their costs could change based on state, zip code, income and family size.
"We're going to see a lot of people choose not to have health insurance next year," Bigelow said.
Louise Norris, health policy analyst for medicareresources.org, said even those who don't receive a subsidy could see as much as a 20% increase in their costs, as healthier people choose not to pay for insurance. Others will see their subsidy shrink. People who make over 400% of the federal poverty level will no longer be eligible for a subsidy at all.
She urged people to pay a lot of attention this year to mail from the marketplace or their insurance company.
"This is not the year to just stick them in a drawer and forget about them. You really want to know heading into open enrollment how much is your plan going up in premiums and what's your projected subsidy for next year," Norris said. "It definitely could be a lot of sticker shock."
Keeping small business employees
Entrepreneur Kyle LaFond, 47, of Middleton, Wisconsin isn't sure how his fewer than 8 employees will replace the up-to-$700-a-month in subsidies they are on track to lose.
"They may have to look for other jobs," he said. "I'm really worried about losing my people."
Kyle LaFond is worried the employees at his small businesses will have to find jobs elsewhere if the Obamacare enhanced tax credits end
The marketplace leveled the playing field for small businesses looking to recruit high quality employees, he said. The cost of providing health insurance to so few employees would be "astronomical," he said. For years he has encouraged them to use the marketplace like he does.
"It allowed a lot of people to look for employment that they were passionate about or enjoyed rather than being stuck in a corporate job that is really soulless or meaningless to a lot of folks," he said.
He wants the premium subsidies permanently extended but isn't counting on Congress to do it. He's urging employees to plan as if they will end.
"Hope in this instance can't be a strategy," LaFond said.
Sarah D. Wire writes for USA TODAY about how real people are affected by the federal government. She can be reached at [email protected]
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: The government could shut down over a tax credit. Here's who gets it.
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